Inspired

Working at TND has inspired me to shout out a little more frequently. Today we get half-baked science from Bob Carter of the Telegraph.

"...for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero). Yes, you did read that right."

Thank you Mr. Carter.

Interlude: I'm personally undecided about the scope and urgency of global warming until I finish reading the Full IPCC report; the competent skeptic Richard Lindzer encourages everyone to do so, rather than relying on the "Summary for PolicyMakers".

Back to Mr. Carter. If you pick the hottest year in the 140-year record as a starting point for a trend, you will get this kind of result something like 99% of the time. Your outburst is exactly as convincing as if you measured the period August-December, 1998 and trumphantly declared scientific victory when you report the 30+ degree temperature drop.

For anyone who would like a useful and much more fun look at that 1998-2005 time period, observe as James Annan attempts to make another bet, this time with World Climate Report on their assertion that 1998-2007 would exhibit a "statistically significant downward trend". What this means is that the previous all-time record is shaping up to be the new average.

EDIT: woops. Forgot to link Carter's article